Kotzen mare appears to be on the right path

Jack Milner

When it comes to studying form in handicap races, it is always worthwhile to keep an eye on the merit rating of the runner because in many cases, if they are struggling to win, that figure can fall quite significantly.

For each point that drops that it takes 0.5kg off the horse’s programmed weight. However, what is even more significant is that it gives the trainers the opportunity to race their horses in lower-rated events.

That sometimes means that while the runner will carry more weight, it is running in much weaker company and that could make them lively contenders.

That looks to be the case with One Path who lines up in Race 6, a Class 5 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1600m, on the Polytrack at Hollywoodbets Greyville on Wednesday.

This five-year-old mare might only be a one-time winner, but this Nathan Kotzen-trained daughter of One World has been quite consistent, especially on the Polytrack. Her record on this course is one win and five places in eight starts and she could have found the ideal race to pick up a second success, especially if one considers that her victory was her only race over 1600m.

She has only run 12 times and early in her career she was considered decent enough to be tested in the Grade 3 Umzimkhulu Stakes over 1400m on the turf track.

Her merit rating has since fallen from 79 to 73 and having been racing in events with an average merit rating in the seventies, the mean in Wednesday’s event is 65.

She showed marked improvement last time out over 1200m in a race with an average merit rating of 85 to finish a 2.75-length fourth behind Miss Ladyaterix, but that was the first time she had been fitted with pacifiers. They appear to have had the required impact, and they have been retained for this run.

The other important factor is that she will have a 4kg claimer up in the form of Divesh Ramkhalawon and that means One Path will be carrying just 57.5kg. The youngster from Mauritius rode her last time so she knows what it is all about.

She is nicely positioned in barrier No 4 and could provide some decent value on this card.

Finding a banker at the meeting is not easy but there is a lot to like about lightly raced I Am Invictus who lines up in Race 5, a C Stakes over 1600m. Trained by Gareth van Zyl, this four-year-old son of Vercingetorix has only raced five times for one win and two seconds.

He finished unplaced on debut over 1600m on the turf at this track, but he had plenty of excuses, from casting a shoe, to racing greenly and awkwardly. After that race a quick decision was taken to geld him and that happened just two days later.

I Am Invictus was given a rest until March, and fitted with blinkers, he put most of his foibles behind him. Despite hanging in, he led all the way to beat Sail The Horizon over 1600m on the Polytrack.

He was tried over 1900m for his third start but seemed to find it too far and faded late to finish a 3.30-length fifth behind Hodgepodge.

He then came back to 1600m at Hollywoodbets Scottsville and was caught on the line in two successive starts. However, back on the Polytrack this time he could be hard to stop.

Interestingly, he has had a different jockey aboard in all of his five races and he will get a sixth this time with Calvin Habib taking the ride.

 

Jack Milner’s selections

Race 1: 3 Bellanca Viking, 2 Ayzal, 9 California Dreamer, 1 Mist In Maryland

Race 2: 6 Platinum Grey, 4 The Flat Cat, 5 Owner Of Creation, 2 In The Red

Race 3: 4 Wedding Vow, 6 Sovereign Gem, 1 Your Ladyship, 8 Asgardian Queen

Race 4: 5 Ultra Quick, 6 Hoodia, 1 The Wolf, 4 William Of Orange

Race 5: 3 I Am Invictus, 4 Pied Piper, 8 Star Of The Future, 6 Gardener’s Pride

Race 6: 4 One Path, 7 Quandura, 8 Praise De La Rey, 6 Ocotillo

Race 7: 4 Champagne Mac, 3 Trafalgar Square, 7 Bless Me Fred, 6 B Fiftytwo

Race 8: 5 Innerbloom, 1 Lou Lou, 4 Dawn Surprise, 2 Mystique Rouge

 

BEST BET

Race 5: 3 I Am Invictus

VALUE BET

Race 1: 3 Bellanca Viking

BEST SWINGER

Race 5 3×4

 

BIPOT

R162

Leg 1: 2, 3, 9

Leg 2: 4, 6

Leg 3: 1, 4, 6

Leg 4: 1, 5, 6

Leg 5: 3

Leg 6: 4, 7, 8

 

PLACE ACCUMULATOR

R216

Leg 1: 4, 6

Leg 2: 4, 6

Leg 3: 1, 5, 6

Leg 4: 3

Leg 5: 4, 7, 8

Leg 6: 3, 4

Leg 7: 1, 4, 5

 

PICK 6

R2250

Leg 1: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8

Leg 2: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg 3: 3

Leg 4: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg 5: 3, 4, 7

Leg 6: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

 

JACKPOT 1

R75

Leg 1: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg 2: 3

Leg 3: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg 4: 3, 4, 7

 

JACKPOT 2

R90

Leg 1: 3

Leg 2: 2, 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg 3: 3, 4, 7

Leg 4: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6